2025 AFC West Predictions
- Donald Hamilton
- 4 days ago
- 6 min read
Updated: 4 days ago

We’re less than a month away from the opening of the 2025-26 NFL season, as opening night is rapidly approaching. As teams are currently in the preseason gearing up for the season marathon, we will examine each team in every NFL division across both conferences, focusing on the key additions and subtractions they made this offseason before predicting their season records and the division winner.
Let's make our 2025 AFC West predictions.
Kansas City Chiefs
Last Season: 15-2 (won Division), lost to Eagles in Super Bowl
The Chiefs have dominated the AFC for over half a decade. Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback, the Chiefs have dominated the conference, winning seven consecutive AFC Championships and three Super Bowls in that span. The Chiefs finished 15-2 the previous season, and many questioned whether they could repeat their success in the playoffs.
Their offense was not as explosive as it had been in the early Mahomes years, averaging 322 yards per game (19th) and an ineffective ground game with 3.9 yards per rush (31st) and 101.2 rushing yards per game (26th). Those weaknesses were exposed in the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles as they struggled against that vicious defensive front line and lacked any offensive cohesiveness.
However, their offensive unit's efficiency, completing more than 47% of third-down conversions (3rd) and 66% of fourth-down conversions (6th), instilled fear in opponents, who knew they would find a way to win when it mattered most. The Chiefs should become more explosive offensively with the return of Rashee Rice, who showed much improvement from his rookie to sophomore season as the primary target for Mahomes, leading the team in receptions, targets, and receiving yards until his season-ending knee injury in Week 4.
They will also look for an increase in production from sophomore receiver Xavier Worthy, who has turbo jets in his legs and played an important part in keeping the Chiefs offense afloat. He became one of two Chiefs rookies (Rashee Rice) to have 600+ receiving yards and 6+ touchdowns in a season.
Worthy led all playoff receivers in receptions (19), yards (287), and touchdowns (3).
They re-signed offensive lineman Trey Smith to a four-year, $94 million contract extension. He’s improved each year since being drafted in 2021, being a part of two Super Bowl-winning teams for the Chiefs as a key cog of the offensive line.
The Chiefs also extended All-Pro defensive end Chris Jones and veteran linebacker Nick Bolton who were instrumental in the Chiefs' Super Bowl run as one of the best defenses in football last season. However, they did lose All-Pro center Joe Thuney, who they traded in the draft to clear up cap space, as the All-Pro veteran was due for a significant contract extension. They look to go younger on their offensive line, drafting young, promising offensive tackle Josh Simmons out of Ohio State, and re-signing Smith to new deals.
The Chiefs will require Smith and Simmons to excel on the offensive line, given the significant void left by Thuney's departure. Six of their first 10 games are against legitimate Super Bowl contenders (Eagles, Ravens, Lions, and Broncos at home with the Bills and Commanders on the road). For a team as battled tested as the Chiefs, I have no doubts they’ll find themselves in the mix for another Super Bowl run.
Prediction: 14-3, make playoffs
Los Angeles Chargers (11-7 last season)
Last Season: 11-6, lost to Houston in Wild Card
A big blow came to the Chargers' season when Pro Bowl offensive tackle Rashawn Slater tore his patellar tendon, which will keep him out for the season. Linebacker Denzyl Perryman was also recently released for weapons charges. They signed him from the Houston Texans. Despite the negative news, they did make some key additions to their team.
The Chargers acquired Najee Harris from the Steelers, the only active running back with four consecutive seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards and at least five rushing touchdowns. Harris helps give the Chargers a ground game they sorely missed since Austin Ekeler’s departure. The team ranked 20th in rushing yards per game and 27th in rushing yards per play last season.
They re-signed Khalil Mack after the former 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year contemplated retirement, returning for another season. Joey Bosa was released from the team to clear over $25 million in cap space. After the emergence of star rookie Ladd McConkey last season, the Chargers need to determine who will be their secondary target.
McConkey was terrific as a rookie last season, becoming one of seven players since the turn of the decade to have over 1,000+ receiving yards and five or more touchdowns, joining fellow 2024 draft classmates Brian Thomas (Jaguars) and Malik Nabers (Giants), along with established NFL star wideouts Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua.
With Mike Williams retired, the Chargers will be depending heavily on fifth-round draft pick Keandre Lambert-Smith to become their secondary target, as he’s impressed in training camp. A depleted offensive line with Slater’s injury will hurt the Chargers. If they can overcome that and Justin Herbert can utilize his mobility more, they should be an exciting team in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s second season.
Prediction: 10-7, miss playoffs
Las Vegas Raiders
Last Season: (4-13), missed playoffs
The Raiders shook things up this offseason at the helm, terminating Antonio Pierce's employment and bringing in Super Bowl-winning coach Pete Carroll after 14 seasons with the Seattle Seahawks, boasting a 58% career winning percentage.
Carroll will face a familiar foe, as the Raiders traded for former Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, who reunites with Carroll on the Raiders and is expected to bring a new dynamic to an offense that was previously stagnant, now paired with talented tight end Brock Bowers, who can help get him the football.
The Raiders enhanced their offensive line by acquiring Alex Cappa in free agency and selecting Caleb Rodgers and Charles Grant in the draft. They signed Jamal Adams, who adds experience and depth to their safety position, and signed Philip Dorsett II at receiver. In Raiders GM John Spytek's first draft with the Raiders he selected Boise State phenomenon Ashton Jeanty who gives the Raiders a legit running threat.
The Raiders ranked last in rushing yards per game (79.8) and per rush (3.6) while ranking 28th in rushing touchdowns. Jeanty was just 27 yards short of matching Barry Sanders' 1988 Heisman-winning season.
Jeanty possesses a remarkable lower center of gravity, coupled with explosive power and upper body strength, enabling him to excel against contact. He gained 1,970 yards after contact at Boise State, which not only set an NCAA single-season record but would have also made him the nation's leading rusher.
Prediction: 9-8, miss playoffs
Denver Broncos
Last Season: (10-7), lost to Buffalo in Wild Card
The Broncos achieved their first postseason appearance in nearly a decade last year. The last time they appeared in the postseason was when they won the Super Bowl in 2015 with Peyton Manning at quarterback.
The Broncos appear to have found their quarterback of the future, with second-year quarterback Bo Nix having a successful rookie season that saw him become only the fourth rookie quarterback in NFL history (Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Jayden Daniels) to throw for 3,500+ yards, 25+ touchdowns, a completion rating of 60 or better, and a passing touchdown percentage of five or more.
Nix looks primed to take a jump in his sophomore season with another year under Sean Payton, now knowing what to expect in the offense. He’s protected by the best offensive line in football, according to Pro Football Focus. The Broncos have a very young, talented team with cornerback Pat Surtain II, right guard Quinn Meinerz, and punt returner Marvin Mims Jr. who were awarded first-team All-Pro nods.
The team had a dominant defense, ranking third in opponent points allowed (19.0) and second in touchdowns allowed (1.9). They had the best pass rush in the league last season, ranking first in QB sack percentage. They also led the league in sacks (63), interceptions (15), and fumble recoveries (10).
The 63 sacks were a single-season team record led by All-Defensive second team selections Nikkolas Bonnito and Zach Allen, along with Jonathan Cooper, combining for 32.5 of the 63 sacks. Bonnito led the team in sacks (13.5) and tackles for loss (16), ranking third and 12th in the league, respectively.
With a tremendous offensive line, efficient playcalling, and stout defense, the Broncos should be the biggest threat to the Chiefs' chances of winning the AFC West.
Prediction: 12-5, make playoffs.
Division Winner: Chiefs
The Broncos will make a big push to usurp the Chiefs from taking the AFC West for a decade straight. A motivated Patrick Mahomes should be fun to watch after getting crushed in the Super Bowl by the Philadelphia Eagles, and what should be an improved, more flexible offensive line.
With Rice and Worthy back in the fold, they serve as two explosive deep threats for Mahomes, which should help and make the Chiefs a potent offense once again, along with Jones galvanizing the defense. Mahomes and Andy Reid have rarely failed to impress.
I’m not counting them out yet.
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